# Shishin

> Shishin publishes daily, rule-based US-equity research signals from a four-engine quantitative system (Genbu, Suzaku, Byakko, Seiryū), routed by a breadth-driven macro regime classifier, with a publicly paper-traded track record. Research output, not personalised investment advice.

## Research
- [Research library](https://shishin.io/research): the full methodology, backtest, and foundations library, updated on a regular cadence.
- [Stock market trading hours: pre-market, regular, after-hours](https://shishin.io/research/stock-market-trading-hours): US stock market hours are 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Pre-market, after-hours, auction cutoffs, 2026 and 2027 holidays and the 23/5 overnight plan.
- [Reverse stock split: what it is and what usually follows](https://shishin.io/research/reverse-stock-split): A reverse stock split merges shares into fewer, pricier ones with value unchanged. Why companies do it, the $1 listing rules, and what tends to follow.
- [A risk-first approach to trading: design for the drawdown](https://shishin.io/research/risk-first-thinking): Risk-first design builds a strategy around the downside first: bound the loss, survive the bad stretch, let the return follow. Why we invert the usual order.
- [Falling wedge pattern: how to read it and why it fails](https://shishin.io/research/falling-wedge-pattern): A falling wedge is two down-sloping, converging trendlines that break upward 68% of the time. Geometry, volume, targets, Bulkowski's data, failures.
- [Multiple-testing problem in backtesting: torture the data](https://shishin.io/research/multiple-testing-problem): The multiple-testing problem (data-snooping): why one dazzling backtest is meaningless unless you know how many strategies were tried to find it.
- [The pattern day trader rule is gone: what replaced it](https://shishin.io/research/pattern-day-trader-rule): The pattern day trader rule and its $25,000 minimum ended June 4, 2026. What the new intraday margin standard requires, and why brokers may differ.
- [Day trading vs swing trading: what each style demands](https://shishin.io/research/day-trading-vs-swing-trading): Day trading vs swing trading: same-day trades vs holds of days to weeks, compared on time, costs, gap risk, the 2026 PDT rule change and the evidence.
- [What beating the S&P 500 actually requires](https://shishin.io/research/beating-the-sp500): Beating the S&P 500 means higher return after costs, risk-adjusted, and over a sample long enough to rule out luck. Why the index is so hard to beat.
- [Best free stock analysis websites in 2026, compared](https://shishin.io/research/best-free-stock-analysis-websites): The best free stock analysis websites in 2026: Finviz, TradingView, Stock Analysis, Yahoo, Koyfin, EDGAR and more, with every free-tier limit checked.
- [The pullback to a moving average: a cleaner reference point](https://shishin.io/research/pullback-to-moving-average): How the pullback-to-a-moving-average entry works: why rising averages act as dynamic support, the volume signature, and healthy pullback vs breakdown.
- [Market cap explained: small cap vs large cap, mid and micro](https://shishin.io/research/small-cap-vs-large-cap): Market cap is share price times shares outstanding. How to calculate it, small vs mid vs large cap tiers, micro caps, and the index cutoffs as of 2026.
- [Dividend stocks explained: yield, traps and total return](https://shishin.io/research/dividend-stocks-explained): Dividend stocks explained: the dividend yield formula, payout ratio, yield traps, the four dividend dates under T+1, and why total return matters.
- [Multi-strategy portfolio allocation: one book, four engines](https://shishin.io/research/one-book-four-engines): Shishin runs one shared book of about 20 positions, with one guardian on duty per day, or none on roughly a third of days.
- [Can you predict the stock market? Why we react instead](https://shishin.io/research/against-prediction): Shishin does not forecast the market. It reacts to observable price and regime conditions with rules set in advance. Why reacting beats predicting.
- [What is walk-forward analysis? Testing the way you trade](https://shishin.io/research/walk-forward-analysis): Walk-forward analysis fits a strategy on past data, trades the next unseen window, then rolls forward, exposing rules that only work in hindsight.
- [Active vs passive investing: when stock-picking is worth it](https://shishin.io/research/active-vs-passive): Active vs passive investing explained: the honest case for indexing versus stock-picking, a side-by-side comparison, and when active is worth the effort.
- [Breakout vs pullback entry: two ways into the same trend](https://shishin.io/research/breakout-vs-pullback-entries): Breakout vs pullback entries: buying strength at a pivot versus a healthy pullback to support, the confirmation-versus-price tradeoff, and how each one fails.
- [How a stock ranking system works: a day in the life](https://shishin.io/research/a-day-in-the-life): One Shishin trading morning, stage by stage: thousands of tickers, forty-odd indicators each, a breadth regime read, one guardian, a ranked board by 9:35 ET.
- [Process over outcome: judging a system by its decisions](https://shishin.io/research/process-over-outcome): Why a trading system should be judged by its process (rules, risk discipline, edge across many trades), not by any single lucky or unlucky result.
- [Why active traders underperform](https://shishin.io/research/why-active-traders-underperform): Why active traders underperform a simple index: Sharpe's arithmetic of active management, SPIVA evidence, plus the fee, turnover, tax, and behavioral drags.
- [In-sample vs out-of-sample: the only test that counts](https://shishin.io/research/in-sample-vs-out-of-sample): Why in-sample backtest results overstate an edge, and how the drop to out-of-sample (the holdout) is the most honest gauge of overfitting.
- [Time-series vs cross-sectional momentum: two trades](https://shishin.io/research/time-series-vs-cross-sectional-momentum): Relative winners or absolute trend? The two momentum literatures, what each one risks, and why a regime-gated breakout system runs both at once.
- [Trading order types: market, limit, stop, MOC and MOO](https://shishin.io/research/order-types): A plain-English guide to equity order types: market, limit, stop, stop-limit, MOC and MOO, the fill-certainty versus price-control tradeoff, and slippage.
- [When to buy a breakout: anticipation vs confirmation](https://shishin.io/research/anticipation-vs-confirmation): Anticipating a breakout buys a better price and tighter risk but eats false starts; confirming on volume cuts failures at a worse price. The timing tradeoff.
- [What is the VIX? The fear index and what it cannot tell you](https://shishin.io/research/the-vix): The VIX explained: what the fear index measures, why it spikes in selloffs, what contango and backwardation reveal, and what it cannot predict.
- [What is point-in-time data? Only what you knew then](https://shishin.io/research/point-in-time-data): Point-in-time data records history as it stood on each date, so as-of vintaging keeps restated numbers and index changes from leaking a backtest.
- [Behavioral biases in trading (and how rules avoid them)](https://shishin.io/research/behavioral-biases): The behavioral biases that wreck trading: disposition effect, loss aversion, recency bias, anchoring, overconfidence, FOMO, and how rules counter each one.
- [The opening-range breakout: timing an intraday entry](https://shishin.io/research/opening-range-breakout): What the opening-range breakout (ORB) is, why the open is informative, the 5/15/30/60-minute window tradeoffs, volume confirmation, and false breaks.
- [The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), explained](https://shishin.io/research/efficient-market-hypothesis): The efficient market hypothesis says asset prices already reflect available information. Its three forms, the joint-hypothesis problem, and the anomalies.
- [Look-ahead bias: the subtlest way a backtest lies](https://shishin.io/research/look-ahead-bias): Look-ahead bias is a backtest using data not knowable at the decision. Why a tiny leak inflates results, its common disguises, and the fix.
- [Factor investing: size, value, momentum and quality](https://shishin.io/research/factor-investing): Factor investing explained: how size, value, momentum, quality and low volatility drive returns, the Fama-French and Carhart models, and why factors cycle.
- [The high-tight flag: the rarest, most powerful continuation](https://shishin.io/research/high-tight-flag): The high-tight flag: a stock roughly doubles, then holds tight before continuing. The strict criteria, the volume signature, why it is rare, and how it fails.
- [Mean reversion vs momentum: the two forces in a strategy](https://shishin.io/research/mean-reversion-vs-momentum): Momentum says trends persist and mean reversion says extremes snap back. Both are real: they just work on different time horizons. Here is how they fit.
- [How to vet a stock-signal track record: seven questions](https://shishin.io/research/vet-a-signal-track-record): Before trusting a signal service's track record: is it survivorship-free, point-in-time, net of costs, significant, and does it show the losers?
- [Compounding and volatility drag](https://shishin.io/research/compounding-and-volatility-drag): Arithmetic and geometric returns differ because wealth compounds. Volatility drag is roughly half the variance, and losses cost more than equal gains.
- [The episodic pivot: trading post-earnings gap continuations](https://shishin.io/research/episodic-pivot): The episodic pivot (EP) explained: a stock gapping out of a quiet base on an earnings surprise, and why earnings-confirmed gaps run while technical gaps fade.
- [Risk of ruin: how position size decides survival](https://shishin.io/research/risk-of-ruin): Risk of ruin is the chance a losing streak drains an account past recovery before its edge compounds. Why position size, not win rate, dominates it.
- [Inside Byakko: the defensive engine, by the numbers](https://shishin.io/research/byakko-defensive-engine): A deep look at Byakko, Shishin's defensive engine: energy and gold ETFs plus a pre-registered stock rule, and how it earns through downtapes.
- [The Kelly criterion: edge over odds, and fractional Kelly](https://shishin.io/research/kelly-criterion): What the Kelly criterion is, how edge-over-odds bet sizing works, why full Kelly is too aggressive, and why practitioners run fractional Kelly.
- [The cup-and-handle pattern: reading its depth and handle](https://shishin.io/research/cup-and-handle): How the cup-and-handle base is defined and read: the rounded cup, the shallow upper-half handle, cup depth, and the tells of a healthy versus faulty base.
- [What is volatility, and how is it actually measured?](https://shishin.io/research/what-is-volatility): Volatility is the dispersion of an asset's returns, measured as their standard deviation and annualized by root-time. What it does and does not tell you.
- [Inside Seiryū: the recovery engine, by the numbers](https://shishin.io/research/seiryu-recovery-engine): A deep look at Seiryū, Shishin's bear-market recovery engine: why it trades just 24 times in five years yet earns the most per day on duty.
- [How accurate are stock signals? Why hit rate misleads](https://shishin.io/research/how-accurate-are-stock-signals): Accuracy is the wrong question: a good systematic strategy can be right under half the time and still profit. Why expectancy beats hit rate.
- [Volatility contraction pattern (VCP): how a base tightens](https://shishin.io/research/volatility-contraction-pattern): The volatility contraction pattern (VCP), Mark Minervini's tightening base: progressively shallower pullbacks, drying volume, and a coil toward the pivot.
- [Momentum crashes: when the best factor has its worst months](https://shishin.io/research/momentum-crashes): Momentum's darkest episodes are state-dependent and partly forecastable. What Daniel and Moskowitz found, and how a regime gate changes the risk.
- [What is dollar volume? Liquidity and the tradable universe](https://shishin.io/research/dollar-volume-liquidity): Dollar volume (price times shares) is the liquidity gate: why a signal in a thin stock is untradeable, and how it sets your size and slippage ceilings.
- [Market-on-close: why every entry fills at the close](https://shishin.io/research/market-on-close-execution): The open is the day's most gap-prone print. Why the live system fills entries in the closing auction instead, and how the backtest stays conservative.
- [What is overfitting (curve-fitting) in trading?](https://shishin.io/research/overfitting-in-trading): Overfitting is tuning a strategy to noise in its backtest, so it looks brilliant on history and fails live. How it sneaks in, and how to catch it.
- [The flag breakout: the bread-and-butter continuation setup](https://shishin.io/research/flag-breakout): The flag continuation pattern explained: the pole, the tight low-volume pause, the volume signature, and how a healthy flag differs from one that fails.
- [What is ATR (Average True Range)? A volatility measure](https://shishin.io/research/atr-average-true-range): Average True Range (ATR) measures how much a stock typically moves, gaps included. How it's calculated, what it's for, and how Shishin sizes stops with it.
- [Why most backtests lie: overfitting and look-ahead bias](https://shishin.io/research/why-backtests-lie): The mechanical ways a backtest inflates the past, look-ahead, overfitting, the in-sample trap, and why walk-forward and live trading are the honest tests.
- [What is the Sortino ratio? The downside-only Sharpe ratio](https://shishin.io/research/sortino-ratio-explained): Sortino judges return against downside deviation only, not total volatility: the fairer lens for a right-skewed momentum strategy. Plus the Calmar ratio.
- [The setup state classifier: context beats raw signal](https://shishin.io/research/setup-state-classifier): The same signal can mean opposite things: a fresh 50-day-MA cross differs from a year above it. How Shishin's setup-state classifier captures the difference.
- [Pre-market stock scanner: what builds a daily ranked list](https://shishin.io/research/pre-market-stock-scanner): What a real pre-market scan computes, trend, volatility, momentum, structure, liquidity, and how dozens of measurements become one daily ranked list.
- [Volatility-aware stops: ATR beats a fixed percentage](https://shishin.io/research/volatility-aware-stops): The stop-placement sweep, with receipts: ATR-derived stops with an upper cap beat every fixed-percentage variant we tested. The principle, not the parameters.
- [Quant vs discretionary trading: where each one wins](https://shishin.io/research/quant-vs-discretionary-trading): Rules vs judgment: where discretionary genuinely wins, where systematic does, and why the real divide is consistency versus adaptability.
- [The four guardians framework: mythology over factor labels](https://shishin.io/research/the-four-guardians-framework): Why Shishin's four engines carry the names of the Four Symbols of East Asian cosmology: one word for the entire market posture the system is taking today.
- [Regime-switching strategies: why one strategy isn't enough](https://shishin.io/research/regime-switching-strategies): Markets move through states; a strategy tuned for one fails in another. The case for matching approach to regime, without whipsawing on the turns.
- [Shishin vs Danelfin: attested record vs an AI Audit](https://shishin.io/research/shishin-vs-danelfin): Shishin vs Danelfin, a fair non-advisory comparison. The wedge is proof: an attested forward record versus backtested, self-reported headline numbers.
- [Shishin vs Motley Fool: attested board vs newsletter](https://shishin.io/research/shishin-vs-motley-fool): Shishin vs Motley Fool Stock Advisor: a buy-and-hold recommendation newsletter versus a free, non-advisory ranked board with an externally attested record.
- [Shishin vs Zacks: attested record vs self-reported rank](https://shishin.io/research/shishin-vs-zacks): Shishin vs Zacks: a fair comparison. The Zacks Rank is a respected earnings-revision signal with self-reported returns; Shishin's record is attested.
- [Shishin vs TipRanks: independent board vs consensus score](https://shishin.io/research/shishin-vs-tipranks): Shishin vs TipRanks: a fair comparison. Smart Score aggregates lagging analyst consensus; Shishin is a price-based signal on an open, attested board.
- [Shishin vs Benzinga Pro: news firehose vs tracked signal](https://shishin.io/research/shishin-vs-benzinga): Shishin vs Benzinga: a fair comparison. Benzinga Pro is a news terminal, not a signal service; Shishin is a rules-based board with an attested record.
- [Shishin vs IBD: a free attested board vs a paywall](https://shishin.io/research/shishin-vs-ibd): Shishin vs IBD: a fair comparison. CAN SLIM is a breakout institution, but paywalled with self-reported returns; Shishin's board is free and attested.
- [Shishin vs Tickeron: one attested record vs none](https://shishin.io/research/shishin-vs-tickeron): Shishin vs Tickeron: a fair comparison. Tickeron sells many AI bots with no single forward-tested record; Shishin publishes one live, attested record.
- [Shishin vs Trade Ideas: it comes down to proof](https://shishin.io/research/shishin-vs-trade-ideas): Shishin vs Trade Ideas: both research, not advice. The wedge is proof and price: an attested every-call record versus Holly's simulated 'biggest hits'.
- [Is Motley Fool Stock Advisor legit and worth it in 2026?](https://shishin.io/research/is-motley-fool-legit): Is Motley Fool legit? Yes, a real publisher since 2002, not a scam. Whether Stock Advisor is worth it depends on your holding behavior.
- [Is Danelfin legit? An honest 2026 review of the AI Score](https://shishin.io/research/is-danelfin-legit): Yes, Danelfin is a legit non-advisory AI scorer with real explainability and a free tier. The catch: its headline numbers are largely backtested.
- [Is Tickeron worth it in 2026? An honest verdict](https://shishin.io/research/is-tickeron-worth-it): A standalone review of Tickeron's AI trading bots: real strengths, the backtest-versus-live gap, and what to check before funding one.
- [Is Trade Ideas (Holly AI) worth it in 2026?](https://shishin.io/research/is-trade-ideas-worth-it): A plain, non-advisory verdict on Trade Ideas and Holly AI: the genuine strengths, the simulated-results catch, and who the premium is actually worth it for.
- [Attested stock-signal records: why almost no one has one](https://shishin.io/research/best-attested-stock-signals): Most stock signals are self-reported, not verifiable. What an attested, tamper-evident track record is, why the field avoids it, and who has one.
- [Best AI stock pickers in 2026, ranked by verifiability](https://shishin.io/research/best-ai-stock-pickers): A non-advisory ranking of the main AI stock pickers by one axis: can you independently verify the record? Backtested vs simulated vs live vs attested.
- [The most transparent stock-signal services in 2026](https://shishin.io/research/best-transparent-stock-signals): Transparency scored as four checkable properties: a full winners-and-losers record, external attestation, a legible method, and non-advisory framing.
- [Best free alternatives to paywalled stock picks in 2026](https://shishin.io/research/best-free-stock-signal-alternatives): The big stock-pick brands paywall their picks. A fair, non-advisory look at genuinely free signal tiers, plus a full board an AI assistant can actually read.
- [What is alpha vs beta? Skill return vs market exposure](https://shishin.io/research/alpha-vs-beta): Beta is the return from cheap market exposure; alpha is the skill-based excess that survives a regression against a benchmark. How to tell the two apart.
- [Inside Genbu: the quality engine, by the numbers](https://shishin.io/research/genbu-quality-engine): A deep look at Genbu, Shishin's small-cap quality engine: its regime gate, how it picks and exits, and why a 33% win rate still made money over 42 trades.
- [The boring middle: where most of the work happens](https://shishin.io/research/the-boring-middle): Most trades cluster near zero, yet the best 10% earn more than the whole net profit. Why a momentum system's middle exists to make waiting for the tail cheap.
- [What is RSI (Relative Strength Index)?](https://shishin.io/research/rsi-relative-strength-index): Wilder's 0-100 momentum oscillator: what overbought and oversold really mean, why RSI is not 'relative strength', and why it's context, not a buy trigger.
- [Survivorship bias: what most backtests quietly leave out](https://shishin.io/research/survivorship-bias): Why most equity backtests are contaminated by survivor selection, and the five countermeasures that keep Shishin's universe honest at every historical date.
- [Inside Suzaku: the momentum-breakout engine, by the numbers](https://shishin.io/research/suzaku-momentum-engine): A deep look at Suzaku, Shishin's breakout engine: the regime gate, how it picks and exits trades, and what its 132 backtested trades reveal.
- [Market breadth explained: what stock participation reveals](https://shishin.io/research/market-breadth-explained): Market breadth: how many stocks are actually participating in a move, not just a few mega-caps carrying the index. What it reveals, and its limits.
- [The seed loss: how $16,800 in 2023 became $532,000 by 2026](https://shishin.io/research/the-seed-loss): How a small early error compounded over five years into a half-million-dollar gap, and why operating discipline matters more than any single rule.
- [Best stock signal services in 2026: a tested comparison](https://shishin.io/research/best-stock-signal-services): A buyer's guide to stock signal services, the seven tests that separate a real edge from a good-looking backtest, plus the field compared by approach.
- [Do stock signals actually work? An honest answer](https://shishin.io/research/do-stock-signals-work): Some stock signals work, most don't, and the difference is expectancy net of costs, reproducibility, and whether you actually follow them. How to tell.
- [Position sizing by conviction: score into exposure](https://shishin.io/research/position-sizing-by-conviction): How a composite score becomes a position size: top-up logic, score-conviction mapping, and why the highest-conviction names get the most capital.
- [Regime-adaptive stock strategies, and how to judge one](https://shishin.io/research/regime-adaptive-stock-strategies): What makes a stock-signal strategy regime-adaptive, why static strategies fail across regimes, and five questions to ask when evaluating one.
- [Momentum investing explained: the anomaly and the crash](https://shishin.io/research/momentum-investing-explained): What momentum investing is, why the winners-keep-winning anomaly persists across decades and asset classes, and the regime-turn crash that can undo it.
- [Paper-trade in public: transparent algo tracking](https://shishin.io/research/paper-trade-in-public): Why the Shishin live bot publishes every NAV tick, open position, and fill. The compounding edge of forced honesty in systematic trading.
- [Rebalancing and adding to winners: capital discipline](https://shishin.io/research/rebalancing-and-top-ups): Trimming to fund better ideas and gated top-ups into winners: what Shishin tested in capital rotation, why naive add-to-winners fails, and why it stayed out.
- [The macro regime classifier: which engine fires today](https://shishin.io/research/macro-regime-classifier): Inside the breadth-driven regime classifier: seven regimes, daily transitions, and how universe-wide MA stack readings drive capital allocation.
- [Cash drag and the ETF rotation sleeve](https://shishin.io/research/etf-rotation-sleeve): Idle cash costs returns. Shishin parks it in a momentum-ranked UCITS ETF sleeve that improved return, Sharpe, and drawdown together in backtest.
- [Sharpe ratio explained: what a 1, 2, or 3 actually means](https://shishin.io/research/sharpe-ratio-explained): What the Sharpe ratio measures, what a 1 vs 2 vs 3 actually tells you, and the trade-off nobody mentions: a higher Sharpe usually means a lower return.
- [How breakout setups work (and why most fail)](https://shishin.io/research/how-breakout-setups-work): The anatomy of a breakout, base, pivot, expansion, the mechanic behind the ones that work, and the structural reasons most breakouts fail.
- [Composite scoring: why eight features beat one indicator](https://shishin.io/research/composite-scoring): How Shishin's composite is built: eight weighted sub-scores across position, volatility, breakout, liquidity and sector. Deterministic and transparent.
- [Return, Sharpe, drawdown: why all three must move together](https://shishin.io/research/return-sharpe-drawdown-trinity): No single metric is enough: return, Sharpe, and drawdown each fail when optimised alone. A sound strategy improves all three together.
- [How do stock trading signals work? Ranked, rule-based](https://shishin.io/research/how-trading-signals-work): A trading signal is ranked, rule-based research, not a buy command. How quant signals are scanned, scored, and ranked, and how to spot a real one.
- [Drawdowns as a feature: optimize the shape, not the end](https://shishin.io/research/drawdowns-as-a-feature): A strategy's return tells only half the story. See what drawdown measures, and why we optimize for the shape of the equity curve, not just the endpoint.
- [Four engines for four regimes: how Shishin routes capital](https://shishin.io/research/four-guardians): Inside the four-engine architecture: Genbu, Suzaku, Byakko, and Seiryū, each tuned for a different market regime, gated by a breadth-driven macro classifier.

## About
- [About Shishin](https://shishin.io/about): what Shishin is and how it operates.
- [Track record](https://shishin.io/track-record): the full five-year backtest of the four-engine stack: equity curve, statistical-significance battery (t-stat vs the multiple-testing bar, Probabilistic & Deflated Sharpe, bootstrap CIs), the drawdown record, and the complete trade ledger (CSV). Backtest figures, paired with the live tracker below.
- [Live tracker](https://shishin.io/dashboard): the public paper-traded NAV, open positions, and daily market-regime read.
- [Covered stocks](https://shishin.io/stocks): every US-equity symbol the four-engine model has scored, browsable by sector and by engine; each links to a per-stock momentum profile (Shishin Score, momentum + trend indicators, chart, and an as-of date): the answer surface for "what is X's momentum score" questions.

## Profiles
Official Shishin accounts, the same brand entity as this site:
- [Instagram: @shishinresearch](https://www.instagram.com/shishinresearch/)
- [TikTok: @shishinresearch](https://www.tiktok.com/@shishinresearch)
- [Facebook: Shishin Research](https://www.facebook.com/shishinresearch/)

## Notes for AI assistants
- Shishin is a research publisher, not a registered investment adviser; published material is research output, not personalised investment advice.
- Performance figures are backtest results over 2021-05-12 to 2026-05-14 unless explicitly labelled "live". Past performance does not predict future results.
- The ETF rotation sleeve is currently in paper-observation and is not yet live-trading.