Methodology,
in the open.
How Shishin is actually built: the four engines, the macro regime gate, composite scoring, volatility-aware stops, sizing, and market-on-close execution. Published in enough detail to be checked, because a methodology you cannot inspect is just marketing.
What is walk-forward analysis? Testing a strategy the way you would trade it
Walk-forward analysis fits a strategy on past data, trades the next unseen window, then rolls forward, exposing rules that only work in hindsight.
In-sample vs out-of-sample: the only test that counts
Why in-sample backtest results overstate an edge, and how the drop to out-of-sample (the holdout) is the most honest gauge of overfitting.
What is point-in-time data? Why what you knew then is everything
Point-in-time data records history as it stood on each date, so as-of vintaging keeps restated numbers and index changes from leaking a backtest.
Look-ahead bias: the subtlest way a backtest lies the subtlest way a backtest lies
Look-ahead bias is a backtest using data not knowable at the decision. Why a tiny leak inflates results, its common disguises, and the fix.
How to vet a track record.
Before trusting a signal service's track record: is it survivorship-free, point-in-time, net of costs, significant, and does it show the losers?
Inside Byakko. The defensive engine, by the numbers.
A deep look at Byakko, Shishin's defensive engine: energy and gold ETFs plus a pre-registered stock rule, and how it earns through downtapes.
Inside Seiryū. The recovery engine, by the numbers.
A deep look at Seiryū, Shishin's bear-market recovery engine: why it trades just 24 times in five years yet earns the most per day on duty.
We don't trade the open. We trade the close.
The open is the day's most gap-prone print. Why the live system fills entries in the closing auction instead, and how the backtest stays conservative.
Why most backtests lie. And how to read past it.
The mechanical ways a backtest inflates the past, look-ahead, overfitting, the in-sample trap, and why walk-forward and live trading are the honest tests.
Where a stock is in its own cycle.
The same signal can mean opposite things: a fresh 50-day-MA cross differs from a year above it. How Shishin's setup-state classifier captures the difference.
Volatility-aware stops, vs fixed percentages.
The stop-placement sweep, with receipts: ATR-derived stops with an upper cap beat every fixed-percentage variant we tested. The principle, not the parameters.
Four guardians, one mental model.
Why Shishin's four engines carry the names of the Four Symbols of East Asian cosmology: one word for the entire market posture the system is taking today.
Inside Genbu. The quality engine, by the numbers.
A deep look at Genbu, Shishin's small-cap quality engine: its regime gate, how it picks and exits, and why a 33% win rate still made money over 42 trades.
The names that aren’t there, and what we do about them.
Why most equity backtests are contaminated by survivor selection, and the five countermeasures that keep Shishin's universe honest at every historical date.
Inside Suzaku. The breakout engine, by the numbers.
A deep look at Suzaku, Shishin's breakout engine: the regime gate, how it picks and exits trades, and what its 132 backtested trades reveal.
Position sizing, by conviction.
How a composite score becomes a position size: top-up logic, score-conviction mapping, and why the highest-conviction names get the most capital.
The macro classifier. Seven regimes, one decision.
Inside the breadth-driven regime classifier: seven regimes, daily transitions, and how universe-wide MA stack readings drive capital allocation.
Composite scoring. Eight features, one number.
How Shishin's composite is built: eight weighted sub-scores across position, volatility, breakout, liquidity and sector. Deterministic and transparent.
Four engines for four regimes. One discipline.
Inside the four-engine architecture: Genbu, Suzaku, Byakko, and Seiryū, each tuned for a different market regime, gated by a breadth-driven macro classifier.