Track record · 実績 · The evidence

Every trade. Every test. Nothing hidden.

A five-year backtest of the four-engine stack — the same strategy that trades live today — measured the way a quant desk measures itself: on risk-adjusted return, statistical significance, the drawdown record, and the full 330-trade ledger you can download and check.

Backtest · 2021-05-122026-05-14 · hypotheticalSee the live, paper-traded track →
Sharpe · 5Y1.72Annualised · risk-adjusted
Max drawdown-16.7%Worst peak-to-trough
CAGR · 5Y+122%Hypothetical · net of fees
Calmar7.29CAGR ÷ max drawdown
t-statistic3.83Clears the |t| > 3 bar
Final NAV$5.34MFrom $100k · 5.0Y
The curve

One book, four guardians

A single total-NAV track from $100k, with the area beneath coloured by which guardian the regime classifier had deployed each day. Log scale, so the early years aren't crushed by the late compounding.

$250K$500K$1.0M$2.5M$5.3M20222023202420252026
Genbu · 46d activeSuzaku · 405d activeByakko · 307d activeSeiryū · 37d activeCash · 463d idle
Statistical significance

Is the edge real, or just luck?

The hard question for any backtest. We answer it the way the literature demands — with confidence intervals, a multiple-testing-aware t-statistic, and a Deflated Sharpe Ratio that penalises for every configuration we tried.

Sharpe · 95% CI (bootstrap)1.19 – 2.215.000× block bootstrap · excludes zero comfortably
t-statistic3.83> 3.0 (Harvey-Liu-Zhu multiple-testing bar) · PASS
Probabilistic Sharpe (> 0)> 99.9%Adjusts for skew & fat tails
Deflated Sharpe · 165 trials> 99.9%E[max Sharpe] under the null = 0.506 · realised 1.72

The t-statistic of 3.83 is the one to anchor on. Harvey, Liu & Zhu (2016) argue that because researchers test thousands of strategies, the usual t > 2 bar is far too lax — a genuine finding should clear roughly |t| > 3. This backtest does, on 1.257 daily returns (from 1.258 daily NAV marks — returns are n−1). The Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio — the probability the true Sharpe is above zero, correcting for the return series being non-normal — is > 99.9%.

The strongest test is the Deflated Sharpe Ratio. During research we ran 165 distinct coordinator configurations; the more you try, the higher a Sharpe you should expect to find by chance alone. The expected best-of-165 under the null is only 0.506. The realised 1.72 sits far above it, so the deflated probability the edge is real is still > 99.9%. The edge is not an artefact of the search.

One honest caveat the numbers make plain: the daily returns are highly non-normal — positively skewed (skew 10.5) with fat tails (excess kurtosis 142) and a high 53% annualised volatility. That is the nature of a concentrated small-cap momentum book: the volatility is dominated by upside — the occasional explosive winner — while the downside stays contained, which is exactly why the worst drawdown is only 17%. We report the Probabilistic and Deflated Sharpe precisely because they correct for that non-normality, where the raw Sharpe assumes it away.

A practical note for anyone reconciling the three headline figures: they will not tie out under the textbook identity, and that is expected. The arithmetic mean return is 92%/yr (Sharpe 1.72 × 53% volatility). The usual variance-drag shortcut — geometric ≈ arithmetic − ½σ² — would then put the compound return near 77%, yet the realised CAGR is 122%. That identity assumes roughly normal returns; at skew 10.5 and excess kurtosis 142 it does not hold here — the variance is overwhelmingly upside variance that compounds in the book’s favour rather than dragging, so the geometric return lands above the Gaussian prediction, not below. The figures are internally consistent; it is the normal-distribution shortcut linking them that breaks.

252-day rolling Sharpe

The Sharpe ratio measured over every trailing one-year window — a test of consistency, not a single end-point number.

min 0.01median 2.14peak 2.95
2022-05-11 (baseline = Sharpe 0)dashed = Sharpe 1 & 2 · scale 0–3 · 2026-05-08
Edge vs beta

Skill, or just the tape?

2024–25 was a strong run for small-caps, so the fair question is whether this is alpha or market beta. Measured against the three major US benchmarks below, the strategy's beta is statistically indistinguishable from zero — the return is not benchmark exposure.

IndexReturn · 5yCAGRβ · all/depAnn. α (t)
Shishin+5.240%+122%
S&P 500 SPY+85%+13%-0.02 · -0.020.000+150% (3.84)
Russell 2000 IWM+34%+6%-0.05 · -0.030.000+150% (3.84)
Nasdaq 100 QQQ+127%+18%-0.06 · -0.050.001+152% (3.87)

The honest, defensible read is the R²: ≈ 0 against all three — the market explains almost none of the stack’s daily variance. The all-days beta (~0) is partly mechanical — a third of days are in cash, where the daily return is zero, which pulls beta toward zero regardless of skill — but the deployed-day beta is also near zero (the second figure in the β column), so it isn’t merely a cash artifact: even when invested, the book is uncorrelated with the index. We’d rather make the weaker, sturdier claim — the market explains almost none of our variance — than “market-neutral by design.” And the benchmark that should most flatter a small-cap momentum book — the Russell 2000 — compounded at just 6% over the window, against the stack’s 122%. So this is not the small-cap index’s return — whether it is small-cap momentum (naive winners-chasing, levered up) is the harder question the factor check below begins, but does not finish, probing.

Stripping market exposure (CAPM, risk-free ≈ 0), Jensen’s alpha is ≈ +150%/yr at a t-stat of 3.84 — it clears the same |t| > 3 bar. With beta at zero the alpha is, in effect, the entire return; it lands above the 122% geometric CAGR for the same arithmetic-vs-geometric reason noted above.

We also ran the Treynor–Mazuy timing test — regressing the stack’s return on the market return and its square, where a positive γ would signal market-timing convexity. Across all three benchmarks γ is not statistically significant (|t| < 1.5). That is what you’d expect when beta is already ≈ 0: there is little market exposure to time. The regime switch surfaces as the near-zero beta and the large alpha, not as a timing coefficient — the edge here is selection, not market timing, and we don’t claim otherwise. (In-sample, no Newey–West autocorrelation adjustment, so treat the alpha t-stat as an upper bound.)

Multi-factor check · Carhart + momentum + risk-on

SPY / IWM / QQQ are the factors least likely to explain a momentum book. The real tests are the momentum factor itself and a risk-on / speculative-growth factor — so we regress the daily return on all of them at once (ETF proxies, rf ≈ 0).

Factor (ETF proxy)Loading βt-stat
Market (SPY)+0.100.87
Size (IWM−SPY)-0.28-1.57
Value (IWD−IWF)+0.311.87
Momentum (MTUM−SPY)-0.31-2.00
Spec. growth (ARKK−SPY)+0.060.91
Alpha (annualised)+151%3.85

Against this set the alpha is ≈ +151%/yr at t 3.85 (R² 0.8%) — but read that as a first-pass screen, not exoneration. The momentum factor here (MTUM) is slow, large-cap, 12-minus-1-month; this book holds micro-caps for roughly twelve days, so its low loading (-0.31) means “our momentum is faster and smaller than the factor,” not “no momentum exposure” — only a high loading would have been damning. And a daily regression on a high-volatility, one-third-cash book is largely swamped by idiosyncratic variance, so a near-zero R² across every factor is as much a power limitation as a sign of alpha.

So treat this as a screen, not a verdict. The test that actually separates “naive small-cap momentum, levered” from genuine selection — a short-horizon winners-minus-losers built on our own universe — is the next panel, and it’s the one that matters.

ETF-proxy Carhart factors; ARKK (innovation) stands in for the crypto/BTC risk-on factor, which is not in the dataset. rf≈0, in-sample, no Newey–West.

The conceptual test · vs our own momentum

The question a factor model can’t answer: does the stack beat naive small-cap momentum, or just lever it? French’s UMD can’t tell us — it’s slow and large-cap. So we built a winners-minus-losers factor on our own survivorship-free universe at our own horizon: top-minus-bottom quintile of 21-day return, rebalanced weekly, ~628 names a side.

Shishin ~ own WMLβ (t)Alpha/yr (t)
Daily-0.16 (-1.93)+150% (3.84)0.003
Weekly-0.32 (-1.25)+159% (3.21)0.006
Deployed-0.01 (-0.17)+118% (2.98)0.000

Two things settle it. First, naive small-cap momentum was flat over this window — the factor’s Sharpe was 0.05 (+0.9%/yr, compounded -4%) — so there is no premium to lever. Second, the stack doesn’t even load on it: its beta is near zero to slightly negative at every frequency (table), while the alpha holds. Crucially, running it weekly and deployed-only — to escape the daily idiosyncratic-variance swamp — keeps the alpha significant (t 3.21 and 2.98) with the momentum beta still ~0. This is selection, not the momentum premium scaled up.

Equal-weight top-minus-bottom quintile of trailing 21-day return (skip 1) on the survivorship-free equity universe, liquidity-screened, rebalanced weekly. Point-in-time via bar availability. rf≈0, in-sample, no Newey–West. Still outstanding: a crypto/BTC and miner-basket regression (BTC is not yet in our dataset) — the book’s biggest winners cluster in crypto miners, quantum, and precious-metal miners, a concentration no factor here measures, so the attribution is not yet complete.

Year by year

The edge holds across regimes

The most damning thing for a strategy is to make all its money in one lucky year. This one was positive every calendar year — including the 2022 bear, when it was one of its strongest.

YearRegimeReturnSharpet-statDays
2021 ·partPartial · launch+0.5%0.130.10163
2022Bear+70.5%2.632.63251
2023Recovery+39.0%1.461.46250
2024Broadening+197.7%1.881.88252
2025Bull+387.7%2.362.35250
2026 ·partPartial · YTD+54.4%1.831.1092
Monthly returns · %
JFMAMJJASOND
2021
2022
13
15
14
2023
27
12
2024
17
46
69
22
2025
95
29
26
26
2026
52
The drawdown record

What it cost to ride it

The five deepest peak-to-trough declines. Every one recovered. A Monte-Carlo bootstrap says the realised 17% worst case was, if anything, mild — 71% of resampled paths drew down deeper.

DepthPeakTroughRecoveredDeclineRecovery
-16.7%2024-03-132024-05-222024-08-2749d66d
-15.4%2024-09-032024-11-142024-12-0452d13d
-13.6%2021-06-142021-07-152022-02-2422d155d
-10.0%2023-02-172023-05-152023-06-1659d23d
-9.3%2024-01-022024-01-232024-02-2114d20d
The trades

How the money was actually made

330 trades over 5.0 years. A 48.8% win rate that makes money because winners are 3.05× the size of losers — and stops, not hope, close the bad ones.

Win rate48.8%161 of 330
Profit factor3.29Gross $ won ÷ $ lost · dollar-weighted
Avg win / loss+25.4% / -8.33%3.05× payoff
Expectancy+8.1%Per trade, avg
Avg hold12.5dmedian 11d

Note the bases differ: profit factor is dollar-weighted (gross winning dollars ÷ gross losing dollars, at coordinator position sizing), while the avg-win / avg-loss payoff of 3.05× is the equal-weighted per-trade percentage ratio. They are not meant to reconcile to the same figure.

How trades exit

STOP_LOSS is the initial protective stop — a loss by construction (0% win), so it is never where a profit is booked. Trades that run into profit are trailed out by MA12_CLOSE (a close back below the trend) and TIMED_EXIT — those are the profit-taking exits.

STOP_LOSS1340% win-9.5%
MA12_CLOSE9282.6% win+27.9%
TIMED_EXIT8488.1% win+15.7%
GATE_EXIT1850% win+2.3%
END_OF_BACKTEST2100% win+8.6%
By guardian

Each engine’s share of the 330 trades and the gains.

Genbu25 tr32% win$0.10M
Suzaku137 tr43.1% win$4.26M
Byakko148 tr56.1% win$0.38M
Seiryū20 tr55% win$0.50M
The full ledger

All 330 trades

Sort it, filter by guardian, search a symbol, download the lot as CSV. This is the complete record — the winners and the losers — not a highlight reel.

330 of 330 trades
GuardianSymbolEntryDaysP&L %P&L $Size $ScoreExit
GenbuUPSTDiversified Finan Serv2021-05-2020+9.4%+$1.802$19.21266.4MA12_CLOSE
GenbuUONEKMedia2021-05-213-9.3%-$1.810$19.56570.7STOP_LOSS
GenbuPDSBBiotechnology2021-05-2414+7.2%+$1.281$17.75469.1MA12_CLOSE
GenbuSKINCosmetics/Personal Care2021-06-0715+7.4%+$1.409$19.03272.0MA12_CLOSE
GenbuAGENBiotechnology2021-06-0927+5.9%+$1.223$20.71771.3MA12_CLOSE
GenbuBTUCoal2021-06-107-11.3%-$2.400$21.17073.7STOP_LOSS
GenbuCLFIron/Steel2021-06-105-7.0%-$1.483$21.14473.8STOP_LOSS
GenbuNTLABiotechnology2021-06-151-7.6%-$1.482$19.61172.0STOP_LOSS
GenbuASANSoftware2021-06-1630+31.0%+$5.620$18.13962.5MA12_CLOSE
GenbuAVXLBiotechnology2021-06-211-9.5%-$1.786$18.77066.7STOP_LOSS
GenbuATOSBiotechnology2021-06-228-13.5%-$2.492$18.44672.9STOP_LOSS
GenbuGSATTelecommunications2021-06-2313-10.6%-$1.964$18.47174.1STOP_LOSS
GenbuLIAuto Manufacturers2021-06-2512+0.9%+$178$19.75670.3MA12_CLOSE
GenbuNBPBiotechnology2021-06-306-8.8%-$1.404$15.88268.6STOP_LOSS
GenbuANVSBiotechnology2021-07-069-2.6%-$419$16.39074.1MA12_CLOSE
GenbuFLNABiotechnology2021-07-069-9.9%-$1.627$16.34969.7STOP_LOSS
GenbuBTUCoal2021-07-088-11.4%-$2.598$22.76076.2STOP_LOSS
GenbuINMBBiotechnology2021-07-123-8.7%-$1.521$17.42274.0STOP_LOSS
GenbuMRNABiotechnology2021-07-1626+34.3%+$6.090$17.77666.8MA12_CLOSE
ByakkoFHTXPharmaceuticals2021-12-1411+23.8%+$3.916$16.47050.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoCENXMining2021-12-2211+9.8%+$1.697$17.41150.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoSCNIPharmaceuticals2021-12-238-13.0%-$2.104$16.17050.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoXOPDefensive ETF2022-02-0113-2.4%-$596$24.9980.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoSENSPharmaceuticals2022-02-037-9.4%-$1.620$17.29850.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoMDGLPharmaceuticals2022-02-0811+11.9%+$1.948$16.43050.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoHAEHealthcare-Products2022-02-0911+3.5%+$592$16.95150.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoPFGCFood2022-02-0911+7.4%+$1.272$17.10350.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoGSMMining2022-02-1011+25.5%+$1.873$7.34250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoGDXDefensive ETF2022-02-1644+13.6%+$2.130$15.6590.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoAVNSHealthcare-Products2022-02-258-5.1%-$894$17.58150.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoCELHBeverages2022-02-256-9.4%-$1.784$18.99950.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoLFSTHealthcare-Services2022-02-251-9.8%-$1.759$17.93450.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoSGRYHealthcare-Services2022-02-2511+8.8%+$661$7.49750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoXOPDefensive ETF2022-02-2539+20.0%+$5.170$25.8790.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoALHCHealthcare-Services2022-03-076-9.5%-$1.634$17.19450.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoOISOil&Gas Services2022-03-082-8.6%-$1.526$17.83850.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoCLOVHealthcare-Services2022-03-094-11.9%-$2.211$18.62250.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoXLEDefensive ETF2022-03-14224+15.6%+$3.671$23.5950.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoCLOVHealthcare-Services2022-03-1611+24.6%+$4.051$16.48450.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoLFSTHealthcare-Services2022-03-1611+10.8%+$1.380$12.82750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoTMCMining2022-03-3011+17.3%+$2.837$16.41850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoDRTSHealthcare-Products2022-04-055-15.0%-$2.382$15.88150.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoCDEMining2022-04-136-6.7%-$1.057$15.84550.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoLIXTHealthcare-Products2022-04-132-15.0%-$2.373$15.82050.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoOGIPharmaceuticals2022-04-136-8.2%-$289$3.52950.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoAGIGOil&Gas2022-04-184-15.0%-$2.015$13.43250.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoWTIOil&Gas2022-05-0411+10.6%+$1.450$13.66750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoXOPDefensive ETF2022-05-043-11.5%-$2.929$25.4510.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoAHCOPharmaceuticals2022-05-1311+14.5%+$2.007$13.80850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoDDLFood2022-05-166-15.0%-$2.018$13.45250.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoSNOAPharmaceuticals2022-05-1611+0.6%+$84$14.40650.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoXOPDefensive ETF2022-05-1719+7.6%+$1.524$19.9740.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoMNKDPharmaceuticals2022-05-2011+22.3%+$3.141$14.11550.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoGYREPharmaceuticals2022-05-2411+27.6%+$3.452$12.49950.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoAPYXHealthcare-Products2022-05-2711+14.6%+$2.200$15.12350.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoNTRAHealthcare-Products2022-05-273-9.6%-$65$67450.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoDNAHealthcare-Services2022-06-036-12.0%-$1.757$14.64550.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoAMLXPharmaceuticals2022-06-0611+50.7%+$7.180$14.17250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoOCGNPharmaceuticals2022-06-2311+32.5%+$4.468$13.75750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoTWSTHealthcare-Products2022-06-2311+26.8%+$3.925$14.67450.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoADPTHealthcare-Products2022-06-244-10.3%-$1.433$13.84150.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoCELHBeverages2022-06-2411+15.4%+$2.191$14.20950.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoHCMPharmaceuticals2022-06-2411+16.7%+$2.397$14.32850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoNTRAHealthcare-Products2022-06-245-8.8%-$1.304$14.80950.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoAGIOPharmaceuticals2022-06-2711+7.8%+$541$6.94250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoENTAPharmaceuticals2022-07-0511+3.4%+$466$13.85650.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoGHHealthcare-Products2022-07-0511+6.4%+$767$12.04750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoPTGXPharmaceuticals2022-07-0811+17.0%+$2.377$13.96750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoVETOil&Gas2022-07-1911+16.6%+$2.173$13.09150.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoUUUUMining2022-07-2811+8.9%+$1.180$13.27550.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoAMRCElectric2022-07-2911+28.1%+$3.763$13.39250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoFTIOil&Gas Services2022-07-2911+21.7%+$2.807$12.92850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoHLXOil&Gas Services2022-07-2911+9.0%+$1.142$12.65750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoXOPDefensive ETF2022-07-2924+1.5%+$500$32.6110.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoPACBHealthcare-Products2022-08-0311+54.4%+$6.794$12.49850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoNERVPharmaceuticals2022-08-054-15.0%-$1.767$11.77850.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoWTIOil&Gas2022-08-1011+25.7%+$2.570$10.00950.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoELVNPharmaceuticals2022-09-0811+17.2%+$2.428$14.13750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoPACBHealthcare-Products2022-09-0811-6.4%-$813$12.70450.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoAMLXPharmaceuticals2022-09-0911+1.7%+$234$13.61850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoBHCPharmaceuticals2022-09-1211-0.5%-$70$12.93650.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoBEATHealthcare-Products2022-09-162-13.2%-$1.669$12.64950.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoLYELPharmaceuticals2022-09-2811-1.0%-$130$12.96450.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoCDEMining2022-09-2911+11.7%+$1.612$13.80950.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoAGMining2022-10-0311-2.5%-$324$12.96850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoFSMMining2022-10-0311+1.5%+$199$13.06350.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoEQXMining2022-10-043-7.5%-$1.001$13.42250.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoEXKMining2022-10-045-7.4%-$986$13.35250.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoHLMining2022-10-0411+1.6%+$199$12.52250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoPROil&Gas2022-10-0411+15.3%+$1.892$12.40750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoEGYOil&Gas2022-10-055-7.2%-$915$12.66950.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoFNUCMining2022-10-055-15.0%-$1.355$9.03550.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoXOPDefensive ETF2022-10-0723+4.3%+$534$12.4040.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoPACBHealthcare-Products2022-10-1311+27.2%+$3.488$12.82650.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoKPRXPharmaceuticals2022-10-192-15.0%-$1.895$12.63250.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoSAMBeverages2022-10-244-6.1%-$737$12.15850.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoPCVXPharmaceuticals2022-10-2511+34.2%+$4.575$13.38950.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoBNGOHealthcare-Products2022-10-2611-9.7%-$1.242$12.79850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoCDNAHealthcare-Products2022-10-268-7.7%-$949$12.26350.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoTLRYPharmaceuticals2022-10-2611+3.7%+$469$12.59950.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoCYHHealthcare-Services2022-10-2811+16.7%+$2.136$12.77250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoBNGOHealthcare-Products2022-10-3111+20.8%+$2.592$12.47450.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoFNUCMining2022-10-3111+39.4%+$4.933$12.52550.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoHRMYPharmaceuticals2022-11-024-5.1%-$625$12.20450.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoACBPharmaceuticals2022-11-1111-5.3%-$706$13.20550.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoARVNPharmaceuticals2022-11-118-9.6%-$1.198$12.48250.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoAZTAHealthcare-Products2022-11-1111+22.5%+$2.775$12.35650.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoBLFSHealthcare-Products2022-11-115-11.6%-$1.469$12.65050.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoINMDHealthcare-Products2022-11-1111+1.5%+$197$13.18550.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoNEOGHealthcare-Products2022-11-1111-3.9%-$475$12.34750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoOMHealthcare-Products2022-11-1111+4.0%+$497$12.48950.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoSGRYHealthcare-Services2022-11-115-9.7%-$1.316$13.50650.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoSNDLFood2022-11-1111+5.9%+$233$3.96550.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoESTAHealthcare-Products2022-11-1411+1.5%+$191$13.06850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoSHCHealthcare-Services2022-11-2211+4.5%+$580$12.83250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoSGRYHealthcare-Services2022-11-2511-7.8%-$957$12.31850.0TIMED_EXIT
SuzakuMLCOLodging2022-12-0220+26.7%+$10.764$40.24374.0MA12_CLOSE
ByakkoVTAKHealthcare-Products2022-12-299-15.0%-$2.075$13.83250.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoCHRSPharmaceuticals2023-01-0311+12.0%+$1.769$14.70750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoEQXMining2023-01-0411+17.3%+$2.450$14.13450.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoGDXDefensive ETF2023-01-0420+2.6%+$1.108$42.8240.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoOTLYFood2023-01-0411+18.6%+$2.660$14.32250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoNVCRHealthcare-Products2023-01-062-8.6%-$1.131$13.12750.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoHBMMining2023-01-0911+1.7%+$233$13.42050.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoSTAAHealthcare-Products2023-01-0911+20.8%+$2.899$13.90850.0TIMED_EXIT
SuzakuPACBHealthcare-Products2023-01-181-8.8%-$3.760$42.48966.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuAEHRSemiconductors2023-01-2415+0.8%+$348$43.59872.3MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuSITMSemiconductors2023-01-2423+4.8%+$2.074$43.59469.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuTGTXBiotechnology2023-01-2424+24.4%+$5.090$20.84371.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuVKTXBiotechnology2023-02-0918+2.7%+$1.211$44.89066.3MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuMNDYSoftware2023-02-152-9.0%-$3.954$43.90470.0STOP_LOSS
SuzakuFSLYSoftware2023-02-174-8.6%-$3.904$45.69571.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuSMGHousewares2023-02-176-5.4%-$2.478$45.69067.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuTWLOSoftware2023-02-174-6.5%-$2.972$45.69867.0STOP_LOSS
SuzakuACVASoftware2023-02-2417+1.5%+$665$43.14777.5MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuTMDXHealthcare-Products2023-02-2413-1.9%-$820$43.12172.8MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuNTRAHealthcare-Products2023-03-037-6.5%-$2.819$43.63468.3STOP_LOSS
SuzakuIOTSoftware2023-03-0610-6.2%-$2.716$43.65667.8STOP_LOSS
ByakkoCDEMining2023-03-2811+21.7%+$2.717$12.49950.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoOSCRHealthcare-Services2023-03-2911+15.6%+$1.970$12.65050.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoKOSOil&Gas2023-04-0311-6.5%-$778$11.91050.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoBFLYHealthcare-Products2023-04-1011+8.1%+$1.039$12.87450.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoKALAPharmaceuticals2023-04-126-14.7%-$1.823$12.43250.0STOP_LOSS
SeiryūCLSKInvestment Companies2023-04-181-10.3%-$3.557$34.41469.9STOP_LOSS
ByakkoNNOXHealthcare-Services2023-05-0211+71.5%+$8.913$12.46650.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoGDXDefensive ETF2023-05-036-3.8%-$1.619$42.1110.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoPRVAHealthcare-Services2023-05-057-5.7%-$651$11.42850.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoACHPharmaceuticals2023-05-081-7.7%-$885$11.57650.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoGHHealthcare-Products2023-05-112-6.9%-$793$11.47550.0STOP_LOSS
SeiryūIONQSoftware2023-05-1815+1.2%+$426$34.69566.4MA12_CLOSE
SeiryūSMCIComputers2023-05-1829+39.9%+$13.852$34.68367.5MA12_CLOSE
SeiryūIMVTBiotechnology2023-05-231-6.2%-$2.140$34.70764.1STOP_LOSS
SuzakuSDGRSoftware2023-06-167-7.6%-$3.430$44.96778.0STOP_LOSS
SuzakuBTBTInvestment Companies2023-06-2016+7.8%+$3.637$46.40870.9MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuKEELInvestment Companies2023-06-2129+22.6%+$10.494$46.41072.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuMARAInvestment Companies2023-06-2229+42.4%+$19.678$46.40873.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuHUTInvestment Companies2023-06-2821+24.6%+$9.373$38.12068.5MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuCLSKInvestment Companies2023-07-0615+18.9%+$8.768$46.46082.8MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuIONQSoftware2023-07-195-7.5%-$3.545$47.47780.2MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuXPEVAuto Manufacturers2023-07-2411+14.2%+$8.186$57.64663.5MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuNIOAuto Manufacturers2023-07-2614+2.0%+$1.151$57.63762.4MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuWALBanks2023-07-2713-1.2%-$694$57.56263.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuSMCIComputers2023-07-2812-11.5%-$6.631$57.62573.7STOP_LOSS
SuzakuSABRLeisure Time2023-08-107-8.8%-$5.104$58.14664.3STOP_LOSS
ByakkoCELHBeverages2023-08-3011+7.6%+$1.107$14.64450.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoCGCPharmaceuticals2023-08-3111+184.2%+$29.068$15.78050.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoXOPDefensive ETF2023-09-059-1.4%-$769$56.8120.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoXOPDefensive ETF2023-09-281-1.8%-$1.120$64.1300.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoXOPDefensive ETF2023-10-177-4.0%-$2.522$63.9200.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoBTAIPharmaceuticals2023-10-3111-13.7%-$2.056$14.99050.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoSPRCPharmaceuticals2023-11-018-15.0%-$2.032$13.54850.0STOP_LOSS
SeiryūMSTRSoftware2023-11-104-6.5%-$3.238$50.20663.2STOP_LOSS
SeiryūDUOLSoftware2023-11-141-6.5%-$3.176$48.95565.8STOP_LOSS
SeiryūPISemiconductors2023-11-1520+4.8%+$2.340$48.48264.9MA12_CLOSE
SeiryūCRSPBiotechnology2023-11-2010-7.5%-$3.649$48.55367.8STOP_LOSS
SeiryūCOINDiversified Finan Serv2023-11-2142+48.4%+$23.468$48.46865.1MA12_CLOSE
ByakkoGDXDefensive ETF2023-11-289-5.3%-$3.246$60.6920.0GATE_EXIT
SuzakuBKKTDiversified Finan Serv2023-12-286-18.5%-$10.996$59.42883.0STOP_LOSS
SuzakuGCTSoftware2023-12-2815+11.5%+$6.848$59.54974.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuMETCCoal2024-01-0412-6.7%-$4.143$61.61972.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuKROSBiotechnology2024-01-0528+9.8%+$6.039$61.60067.9MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuRXRXBiotechnology2024-01-056-8.6%-$5.325$61.72865.8STOP_LOSS
SuzakuSANABiotechnology2024-01-117-12.1%-$6.842$56.41172.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuLQDABiotechnology2024-01-185-6.4%-$3.842$59.90369.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuEWTXBiotechnology2024-01-2322+15.8%+$9.270$58.63778.0MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuSMCIComputers2024-01-2329+60.2%+$35.278$58.60666.7MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuARQTBiotechnology2024-01-2447+119.7%+$70.110$58.55473.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuEYPTBiotechnology2024-02-023-8.5%-$5.186$60.84774.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuMGNXBiotechnology2024-02-0515+2.3%+$1.371$59.55671.8MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuVKTXBiotechnology2024-02-1423+122.3%+$75.657$61.87972.5MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuRGTIComputers2024-02-201-11.5%-$7.127$62.22179.6STOP_LOSS
SuzakuIOVABiotechnology2024-02-2215-1.7%-$1.179$69.24973.2MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuCCCCBiotechnology2024-02-2320+5.6%+$3.860$69.25673.3MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuMRNABiotechnology2024-03-122-5.8%-$6.115$105.34567.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuIBRXBiotechnology2024-03-214-9.8%-$10.248$104.84071.9STOP_LOSS
SuzakuMODBuilding Materials2024-03-214-5.5%-$5.781$104.55064.3STOP_LOSS
SuzakuNUVBBiotechnology2024-03-288-10.2%-$10.309$100.83479.8STOP_LOSS
SuzakuSNDLFood2024-03-2813+3.0%+$3.061$100.83666.8MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuSTOKBiotechnology2024-03-287-12.9%-$12.964$100.81180.7STOP_LOSS
SuzakuOUSTSemiconductors2024-04-027-8.3%-$8.331$100.82872.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuEXKMining2024-04-0411-1.3%-$1.150$87.85466.7MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuSMTCSemiconductors2024-04-0513-1.7%-$1.541$90.51965.8MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuARQTBiotechnology2024-04-093-9.3%-$8.558$92.48170.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuJANXBiotechnology2024-04-1014+7.8%+$7.334$93.66266.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuGERNBiotechnology2024-04-1211-4.0%-$3.392$84.00074.0MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuSMTCSemiconductors2024-04-2924+6.1%+$5.580$91.82870.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuIESCEngineering&Construction2024-05-068-6.2%-$5.639$91.76674.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuVSTElectric2024-05-095-5.7%-$5.193$91.86469.9STOP_LOSS
SuzakuEXKMining2024-05-1520+4.1%+$3.539$86.54868.8MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuAGMining2024-05-202-6.3%-$5.484$86.53477.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuWULFInvestment Companies2024-06-1228+26.8%+$24.166$90.07375.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuHUTInvestment Companies2024-06-1327+32.1%+$28.945$90.05275.2MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuBTBTInvestment Companies2024-07-082-10.8%-$9.767$90.07267.5STOP_LOSS
SuzakuAEHRSemiconductors2024-07-1121+9.3%+$9.394$100.88464.2MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuASTSTelecommunications2024-07-1544+106.3%+$107.285$100.89172.4MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuCORZInvestment Companies2024-07-153-7.9%-$7.975$100.88672.9MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuHUTInvestment Companies2024-07-153-10.4%-$10.529$100.90170.7STOP_LOSS
SuzakuHIVEInvestment Companies2024-07-223-11.3%-$10.347$91.66264.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuLUMNTelecommunications2024-07-2632+194.9%+$168.562$86.49166.0MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuVISNTelecommunications2024-07-303-10.6%-$9.152$86.49274.8STOP_LOSS
SuzakuVXX2024-08-061-13.0%-$12.171$93.60762.5STOP_LOSS
SuzakuGDSTelecommunications2024-08-2318+1.1%+$981$87.91170.8MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuHOVHome Builders2024-08-235-6.3%-$5.514$87.35176.8STOP_LOSS
SuzakuPSNYAuto Manufacturers2024-09-031-11.4%-$18.023$158.27174.0STOP_LOSS
SuzakuGGALBanks2024-09-0519+5.4%+$8.336$153.75965.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuVISNTelecommunications2024-09-1219+15.7%+$23.009$146.84479.5MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuTLNElectric2024-09-1319+5.3%+$7.759$146.55371.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuMPTREITs2024-09-162-6.8%-$9.998$147.01670.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuFLGBanks2024-09-185-6.7%-$9.140$137.00265.1STOP_LOSS
SuzakuLUMNTelecommunications2024-09-238-9.9%-$12.654$127.88474.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuGDSTelecommunications2024-09-241-8.7%-$13.210$151.33569.8STOP_LOSS
SuzakuRKLBAerospace/Defense2024-09-2614+7.8%+$11.605$148.03471.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuLXDiversified Finan Serv2024-10-021-6.4%-$9.414$146.96168.0STOP_LOSS
SuzakuUNFIFood2024-10-021-5.9%-$8.609$146.89768.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuRKLBAerospace/Defense2024-10-1614-2.3%-$3.398$150.94770.0MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuLEUMining2024-10-1718-4.0%-$5.966$150.82370.5MA12_CLOSE
GenbuPCTEnvironmental Control2024-10-247-7.9%-$11.348$143.67363.0STOP_LOSS
GenbuMSTRSoftware2024-10-257-2.2%-$2.634$121.27567.4MA12_CLOSE
GenbuLACMining2024-10-289-9.3%-$3.457$37.11967.9STOP_LOSS
SuzakuHUTInvestment Companies2024-11-0620+31.1%+$44.861$144.25464.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuLMNDInsurance2024-11-061-6.7%-$9.669$144.22266.1STOP_LOSS
SuzakuRKLBAerospace/Defense2024-11-0628+76.7%+$110.673$144.22969.0MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuKCSoftware2024-11-075-8.4%-$11.663$139.42572.0STOP_LOSS
SuzakuPOWLElectrical Compo&Equip2024-11-076-6.3%-$8.706$139.32676.9STOP_LOSS
SuzakuDAVEDiversified Finan Serv2024-11-1227+33.9%+$43.370$127.80074.0MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuLUNRAerospace/Defense2024-11-131-8.9%-$11.654$130.66770.1STOP_LOSS
SuzakuJOBYAerospace/Defense2024-11-2219+11.8%+$14.003$119.02573.9MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuRGTIComputers2024-11-2643+355.4%+$515.583$145.05084.6MA12_CLOSE
GenbuCRDOTelecommunications2024-12-161-8.3%-$15.598$187.05569.5STOP_LOSS
GenbuGRRRComputers2024-12-1622+84.6%+$158.244$187.05570.7MA12_CLOSE
GenbuIONQSoftware2024-12-171-12.9%-$23.425$182.03073.7STOP_LOSS
ByakkoGDXDefensive ETF2025-03-062-2.1%-$7.105$345.7280.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoEXKMining2025-03-1211-2.4%-$2.172$89.24350.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoGDXDefensive ETF2025-03-1217-0.5%-$1.806$343.9570.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoLFWDHealthcare-Products2025-03-2011-11.6%-$11.159$96.17750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoNAKAHealthcare-Services2025-03-255-15.0%-$12.851$85.67150.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoRYTMPharmaceuticals2025-04-082-7.7%-$6.398$83.67450.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoGDXDefensive ETF2025-04-1014+0.1%+$213$335.3790.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoIAGMining2025-04-1011+5.9%+$5.270$89.72050.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoSBSWMining2025-04-1411+6.0%+$5.189$85.81150.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoXLEDefensive ETF2025-04-1453+7.9%+$26.644$335.3640.0GATE_EXIT
ByakkoUSARMining2025-04-154-15.0%-$12.969$86.46150.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoUUUUMining2025-04-172-8.1%-$7.505$92.53950.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoQUREPharmaceuticals2025-04-2111+22.8%+$19.458$85.35250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoNGMining2025-04-2211+23.8%+$21.080$88.48550.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoCGCPharmaceuticals2025-04-2411+8.1%+$7.257$89.98850.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoCORTPharmaceuticals2025-04-2411+3.1%+$2.689$86.17950.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoGRALHealthcare-Products2025-04-2411+4.8%+$4.743$98.39550.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoUSARMining2025-04-246-15.0%-$3.962$26.41350.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoINDVPharmaceuticals2025-04-2511+3.0%+$2.632$88.51250.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoTEMHealthcare-Products2025-04-2511+15.3%+$987$6.43850.0TIMED_EXIT
SeiryūODDCosmetics/Personal Care2025-05-058-7.4%-$19.788$268.78163.6STOP_LOSS
SeiryūDUOLSoftware2025-05-0912+0.1%+$278$273.05663.0MA12_CLOSE
SeiryūDAVEDiversified Finan Serv2025-05-1232+20.9%+$48.195$230.77563.2MA12_CLOSE
SeiryūTMDXHealthcare-Products2025-05-1221+4.2%+$11.643$278.58162.7MA12_CLOSE
SeiryūQBTSComputers2025-05-1620+34.2%+$85.133$249.07166.5MA12_CLOSE
SeiryūQUBTSoftware2025-05-237-11.9%-$1.171$9.80665.2STOP_LOSS
SeiryūRGTIComputers2025-05-237-11.4%-$30.034$263.53167.5STOP_LOSS
SeiryūELFCosmetics/Personal Care2025-05-3021+6.3%+$299$4.72964.7MA12_CLOSE
SeiryūODDCosmetics/Personal Care2025-05-3010-6.0%-$14.323$237.37165.6STOP_LOSS
SeiryūOUSTSemiconductors2025-06-0229+68.8%+$199.867$290.26564.3MA12_CLOSE
SeiryūTSSIEngineering&Construction2025-06-0533+57.5%+$192.287$334.20473.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuATAIBiotechnology2025-08-2510-9.5%-$44.814$471.41875.8STOP_LOSS
SuzakuIRENInvestment Companies2025-08-2556+155.6%+$733.644$471.40275.4MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuTIGRDiversified Finan Serv2025-08-252-6.5%-$30.609$471.40272.8STOP_LOSS
SuzakuUUUUMining2025-08-2536+40.2%+$189.303$471.39073.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuCIFRInvestment Companies2025-08-2729+66.5%+$293.030$440.80375.7MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuTVTXBiotechnology2025-09-0524+10.9%+$46.364$426.58372.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuLENZBiotechnology2025-10-015-6.2%-$36.092$584.72172.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuABCLBiotechnology2025-10-028-7.3%-$42.453$584.73472.6STOP_LOSS
SuzakuHIVEInvestment Companies2025-10-0214+33.7%+$196.924$584.73772.2MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuSUPXComputers2025-10-061-13.3%-$76.822$575.64980.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuBZAISemiconductors2025-10-076-10.2%-$51.443$506.83476.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuWULFInvestment Companies2025-10-1011-2.9%-$16.011$545.89076.4MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuMLYSBiotechnology2025-10-1310-5.4%-$24.586$455.92476.8MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuNUVBBiotechnology2025-10-2216+13.8%+$104.716$761.67274.2MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuLDIDiversified Finan Serv2025-10-245-11.4%-$82.239$719.27876.3STOP_LOSS
SuzakuLUMNTelecommunications2025-10-2418+14.1%+$101.490$719.26477.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuAXTISemiconductors2025-10-2724+52.4%+$376.622$719.28584.2MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuINTCSemiconductors2025-10-296-7.9%-$50.481$636.98374.5STOP_LOSS
SuzakuPRLDBiotechnology2025-11-041-11.1%-$65.350$586.55577.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuCTMXBiotechnology2025-11-052-9.9%-$51.697$521.19268.3STOP_LOSS
SuzakuSITMSemiconductors2025-11-076-8.2%-$58.853$719.00574.7STOP_LOSS
SuzakuVRDNBiotechnology2025-11-0741+14.9%+$107.388$719.26273.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuSKYTSemiconductors2025-11-112-11.1%-$82.358$744.62580.4STOP_LOSS
SuzakuCELCBiotechnology2025-11-1328+16.9%+$118.022$696.69473.5MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuAPGEBiotechnology2025-11-1445+16.4%+$114.114$696.76567.0MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuHYMCMining2025-12-1546+185.2%+$1.542.673$832.98672.6MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuNUVBBiotechnology2025-12-1812-0.8%-$6.491$859.83674.2MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuIVVDBiotechnology2025-12-237-10.2%-$87.770$859.84382.9STOP_LOSS
SuzakuSGMLMining2026-01-062-10.8%-$92.614$861.65175.2STOP_LOSS
SuzakuHLMining2026-01-0721+27.0%+$232.474$861.64480.1MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuSKYTSemiconductors2026-01-0723+12.6%+$108.609$861.68676.7MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuACMRSemiconductors2026-02-022-6.8%-$88.623$1.312.58075.0STOP_LOSS
SuzakuALMMining2026-02-066-9.7%-$124.616$1.290.39667.6STOP_LOSS
SuzakuFORMSemiconductors2026-02-0625+2.5%+$32.934$1.290.26962.2MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuTERSemiconductors2026-02-0918+3.0%+$39.034$1.290.00068.8MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuUCTTSemiconductors2026-02-0922+17.1%+$221.102$1.290.39070.3MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuLSCCSemiconductors2026-02-127-6.1%-$71.069$1.166.13075.3STOP_LOSS
SuzakuAXTISemiconductors2026-02-2410-7.9%-$86.618$1.095.09980.7MA12_CLOSE
SuzakuISSCAerospace/Defense2026-03-051-7.8%-$102.758$1.314.76973.5STOP_LOSS
ByakkoPROPOil&Gas2026-03-273-12.9%-$40.012$309.79950.0STOP_LOSS
ByakkoCENXMining2026-03-3111+15.9%+$47.819$300.44650.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoAUGOMining2026-04-0111+25.1%+$82.161$327.94450.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoSSRMMining2026-04-0111+3.3%+$10.301$317.11750.0TIMED_EXIT
ByakkoSGMLMining2026-04-0611+50.9%+$149.452$293.39250.0TIMED_EXIT
SuzakuVIAVTelecommunications2026-04-244-9.5%-$126.341$1.329.82972.8STOP_LOSS
SuzakuNOKTelecommunications2026-04-307-6.0%-$77.337$1.298.27470.1STOP_LOSS
SuzakuPOWLElectrical Compo&Equip2026-05-0113+7.7%+$99.276$1.298.10171.5END_OF_BACKTEST
SuzakuCIENTelecommunications2026-05-0410+9.6%+$125.047$1.298.02976.8END_OF_BACKTEST
Questions a skeptic asks

Straight answers

Is the Shishin track record live or backtested?

This page is the backtest of the live four-engine stack over 2021-05-12 to 2026-05-14 (1.258 US trading days). The figures are hypothetical, net of fees, on a survivorship-bias-free database. The live, publicly paper-traded NAV — running the same locked strategy — is on the dashboard. Past performance does not predict future results.

Is the Sharpe ratio statistically significant, or just data-mined?

The daily returns produce a t-statistic of 3.83, which clears the |t| > 3.0 bar Harvey, Liu and Zhu (2016) propose for a genuine finding after accounting for multiple testing. The Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio (probability the true Sharpe exceeds zero) is > 99.9%. And the Deflated Sharpe Ratio — which penalises for the 165 distinct configurations explored during research — is still > 99.9%: the realised Sharpe of 1.72 far exceeds the 0.506 you would expect as the best of that many random trials.

How is survivorship bias handled?

The historical database is seeded from a full point-in-time universe that includes names later delisted, acquired or bankrupted — not just the survivors visible today. A strategy tested only on companies that made it to the present is flattered by definition; ours is not.

What was the worst drawdown?

16.7% peak-to-trough (2024-03-13 to 2024-05-22), recovered in 66 trading days. A Monte-Carlo block-bootstrap of the daily returns shows that is not a lucky low: 71% of 5.000 resampled return-paths drew down deeper, with a median worst drawdown of 19%.

What is the win rate — and why is it under 50%?

48.8% of the 330 trades were winners. The edge is not hit-rate, it is payoff asymmetry: the average winner returned +25.4% against an average loser of -8.33%, a profit factor of 3.29. Stops cut losers quickly while trend and timed exits let winners run — the signature of a momentum system.

Does this backtest include the ETF sleeve or the capital-efficiency layer?

No. This is the four-engine stack exactly as traded live — position cap at 25% of NAV, 20 concurrent slots. The 30%-cap, rebalancing, gated top-up and the idle-cash ETF rotation sleeve are a separate, backtest-validated design covered in the research library; the sleeve is in paper-observation and not yet live-trading.

Methodology & honest limits

Figures come from one locked, deterministic backtest of the four-engine stack: daily-bar resolution, next-open fills, ATR-based stops, breadth-regime engine routing, a 25% position cap and 20 concurrent slots — the live configuration. The regime classifier is computed strictly point-in-time — each session’s regime uses only data through that day’s close, the same function the live bot runs, so there is no look-ahead. Live, entries are placed as market-on-close orders on high-volume names — the closing auction fills the full intended size and sizing against the closing print keeps the book from over-committing capital it doesn’t have. The database is survivorship-bias-free (seeded with delisted and acquired names, not just today’s survivors). The same series feeds the homepage curve and the headline figures across the site, so the numbers never diverge.

What this excludes: the 30%-cap, opportunity-funded rebalancing, the gated top-up, and the idle-cash ETF rotation sleeve. Those lift the same window further in backtest, but they are a separate, forward-looking design — the sleeve is in paper-observation, not live — so they are kept off the live track record and written up in the research library instead. A backtest is a hypothesis about the future, not a promise; past performance does not predict future results, and the live, paper-traded NAV on the dashboard is the honest ongoing test.

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